Analysts Stake Predictions
The World Today - Monday, 3 July , 2006 12:14:00
Reporter: Eleanor Hall
But when he spoke to me earlier today, the Chair of Middle Eastern Studies at the
(To Fawaz Geerges) Professor Gerges,
FAWAZ GERGES: I think the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier and the subsequent Israeli offensive into
On the humanitarian level, I mean, I think human rights groups are warning of a major humanitarian crisis in
What
Regardless of what we think of what the Palestinian fighters, guerrillas, militants did, I think this particular policy of collective punishment of the Palestinian population does not help the long-term prospects of a Palestinian-Israeli peace settlement.
I think it enrages and angers the Palestinian population, it mobilises Arab and Muslim population worldwide against
So I think what
ELEANOR HALL:
What was your reaction when you heard
FAWAZ GERGES: Well, again, what
And this goes to the very heart of the Palestinian-Israeli dilemma. This is why I think what
ELEANOR HALL: What the Israeli Government is saying, as you mentioned, is that it doesn't believe the Hamas Government when the Hamas Government says it was not involved in the kidnapping.
Do you believe the Hamas Government when it says that?
FAWAZ GERGES: Yes, I believe there are major differences within Hamas. Hamas is not a monolith. There is what I call the internal leadership that exists within the Palestinian Authority in
And I think that in fact, Haniyeh, Ismail Haniyeh, the Palestinian Prime Minister, was reportedly surprised that a major operation against an Israeli... the Israeli military was carried out without his knowledge.
ELEANOR HALL: Well, Ehud Olmert has warned that
FAWAZ GERGES: The Israeli Prime Minister and the Israeli leadership have made it very clear that all Hamas leaders are vulnerable to assassination.
In the Arab and Muslim world there has been a public outcry against the Israeli policy. On many levels this particular crisis has played directly into the hands of the Hamas leadership and the Hamas Government in
ELEANOR HALL: In this context, what is the likelihood of the Egyptian negotiations succeeding?
FAWAZ GERGES: Well, I think there is a likelihood that the Israeli soldier, the kidnapped Israeli soldier, could be released very soon. I mean, remember, both sides are trying to maximise their negotiating position. The Palestinians are saying: "We will release the Israeli soldier. We will trade the Israeli soldier for Palestinian prisoners."
So there is negotiation taking place and I believe that unless
ELEANOR HALL: Well, Israeli Government has said it won't release Palestinian prisoners, so what will be the negotiating points?
FAWAZ GERGES: Well, the negotiating point will be a promise by the Israeli leadership to President Mubarak, Egyptian President Mubarak, that we will take into account your point about future release of Palestinian prisoners.
I think
ELEANOR HALL: And that's Professor Fawaz Gerges, the Chair of Middle Eastern and International Studies at
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